Prevention as an Asset Class
Build LongAsset
Your analytical companion for prevention markets and longevity assets.
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Where Prevention Becomes Investable
Prevention ROI takes 10-20+ years, but capital cycles are 3-7 years. Most prevention is uninvestable—except in narrow conditions where incentives align.
EDEN's Investable Thesis
Fast payback (<3 years) + measurable outcomes + aligned incentives + captive population
We've identified 5 arbitrage dimensions where these conditions create investable opportunities.
Prevention Market Arbitrage Map
Real investors, real deals, real arbitrage opportunities — mapped across 5 dimensions
| Company | Description | Investors | Deal | Year | EDEN Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Omada Health | Digital pre-diabetes reversal | Cigna Ventures, a16z, Kaiser Permanente Ventures | $50M | 2022 | Model ROI < 5 yrs for CGM + coaching |
| Hinge Health | MSK programs, 2yr payback | Tiger Global, Coatue, Insight Partners | $600M | 2022 | Quantify avoided ER/surgery costs |
| Virta Health | Self-insured corporates | Sequoia, Venrock, Cigna Ventures | $65M | 2022 | Target stable workforce contracts |
| Company | Description | Investors | Deal | Year | EDEN Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aledade | Physician ACO network | Venrock, OMERS Growth, Meritech | $260M | 2023 | Savings-share ROI modeling |
| Doctor Anywhere | Primary-care DHTs (Singapore) | Novo Holdings, Asia Partners | $88M | 2022 | Prevention ROI in capitated systems |
| Oviva | Digital nutrition (EU) | Temasek, Sofina, MTIP | $80M | 2022 | National reimbursement frameworks |
| Company | Description | Investors | Deal | Year | EDEN Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CVS Health + Aetna | Pharmacy + payer merger | Merger | $69B | 2018 | Synergy ROI in integrated care |
| Cityblock Health | Medicaid super-utilizers | Alphabet GV, Emerson, Tiger Global | $400M | 2021 | ROI in underserved markets |
| Propeller Health | COPD monitoring | Acquired by ResMed | $225M | 2018 | Hospital-avoidance value capture |
| Company | Description | Investors | Deal | Year | EDEN Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levels Health | Consumer CGM | a16z, General Catalyst | $44M | 2023 | CGM data to short-term ROI |
| Biofourmis | Predictive analytics | SoftBank Vision Fund 2 | $300M | 2022 | 90-day risk scores to contracts |
| Huma | Voice/gait monitoring | Leaps by Bayer, SoftBank, Sony | $130M | 2022 | Outcome-based payments via RWD |
| Toku Eyes | AI retinal screening | Icehouse Ventures, NZ Gov Fund | $8M | 2023 | Diagnostic AI in preventive contracts |
| Company | Description | Investors | Deal | Year | EDEN Insight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ro | Sexual health, weight loss | General Catalyst, FirstMark | $150M | 2021 | DTC pricing for cash flows |
| Hims & Hers | Hair loss, sexual wellness | Forerunner, Redpoint, IVP | $200M | 2021 | Low-friction consumer model |
| Headspace Health | Mental health (merger) | Blackstone Growth, KKR | $3B | 2021 | B2B2C employer programs |
| Lyra Health | Employer-paid therapy | Accel, Dragoneer | $235M | 2023 | Employer WTP and retention ROI |
| Altoida | Digital cognition biomarkers | M Ventures (Merck), Evidation | $20M | 2022 | Preventive ROI in neurodegeneration |
EDEN quantifies which interventions deliver measurable ROI < 5 years, under which payment models, with which stakeholder incentive alignment — translating fragmented prevention signals into Prevention as an Asset Class.
EDEN: Your Arbitrage Detection Engine
CB Insights track deals. Rock Health reports trends. EDEN quantifies prevention as an investable asset.
Map Time-to-ROI
For different prevention interventions across populations and payer contracts
Identify Payment Conditions
Where prevention becomes net-positive for specific stakeholders
Quantify Integration Opportunities
Where vertical consolidation flips prevention economics
See Real Value, Not Just Revenue
Integrate health outcomes with financial performance in one metric.
Predict Market Access Before Launch
Quantify adoption thresholds, payer incentives, workflow friction with time-discounting functions.
Use Models You Can Audit Today
Reproducible DCF + HTA sheets backed by published research and transparent models you can audit.
Start Identifying Opportunities
Get weekly signals on where prevention becomes investable—backed by transparent models you can audit.
How It Works
EDEN learns from real-world health, market, and policy data to reveal which prevention models create measurable returns—and why.
From raw data to investment-ready signals
- OECD, World Bank & WHO – macroeconomic and population metrics
- PitchBook & Crunchbase – venture funding intelligence
- PubMed – scientific and clinical studies
- FDA Database – regulatory approvals
- IP Databases (USPTO, Espacenet) – early technology signals
- Hospital Statistics – national healthcare and cost data
- HTA Databases (Swiss HTA, NICE) – reimbursement benchmarks
EDEN Optimizers
Three specialized tools that transform prevention data into investable insights
Digital Diabetes Screening in Switzerland
A medium-duration arbitrage with 5–7 year defensibility
Executive Summary
EDEN quantified whether B2C digital diabetes screening can become an investable prevention asset in Switzerland's healthcare system. The analysis reveals a medium-duration opportunity with structural barriers that extend defensibility beyond typical software-only plays.
Key Finding: This is not a fast-closing arbitrage. Regulatory timelines (2–3 years), clinical validation requirements (3–5 years), and workflow integration needs create defensible moats that software competitors cannot easily bypass.
Understanding Arbitrage Duration
Not all prevention opportunities close at the same speed. Strategic positioning requires understanding why some windows stay open longer.
Fast-Closing
Examples: Digital diabetes prevention (Livongo, Omada), mental health B2B (Headspace, Calm)
Low barriers, easy to copy, software-based, no network effects
Medium-Duration
Examples: CGM expansion (Dexcom, Abbott), predictive analytics with data moats
Hardware/manufacturing barriers, regulatory timelines, clinical validation needed
← This case fits here
Sustainable
Examples: Vertically integrated systems (Kaiser), employer-owned healthcare
Structural positions, not arbitrages. Policy-driven, captive markets
EDEN Analysis Framework
System-Fit Assessment
Strong Alignment
Consumer readiness, technology maturity, accountability mechanisms
Weak Alignment
Financing structures, public policy support, system integration
Adoption Thresholds
Early adopters demonstrate willingness to pay, but payer adoption lags. Workflow integration is feasible but requires B2B contracts to achieve scale economics.
Financial Viability
Breakeven at Year 4 with 18,446 users (less than 0.5% of Swiss adults). At 30,000 users by Year 6, valuation ranges CHF 0.94–3.2M depending on discount rate assumptions (50–15%).
Sustainability requires transition to B2B reimbursement model.
Key Metrics
| Metric | Value | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Breakeven Timeline | Year 4 | Requires 18,446 users |
| Market Penetration @ Breakeven | <0.5% | Of Swiss adult population |
| Valuation @ 30k Users (Yr 6) | CHF 0.94–3.2M | Range reflects 50–15% discount rates |
| Path to Sustainability | B2B | Contracts + platform integration |
Why This Isn't Fast-Closing
Regulatory approval timelines create 2–3 year barriers that software-only competitors cannot bypass.
Clinical validation requirements mean data moats take 3–5 years to accumulate—not easily replicated.
Unlike pure software plays (Livongo, Omada), this requires workflow integration with existing healthcare infrastructure.
The bottleneck is policy/financing/systemic—not technology. This extends defensibility but requires B2B reimbursement to scale.
Market Context
TAM 2030
Growing 15–20% annually
EDEN Back Testing
Reduces false positives
Rotation Edge
Ahead of consensus
Illustrative outputs from EDEN-SCALE (2024 dataset). Not investment advice.
Why It Works
Peer-reviewed methods translating health innovation into investment decisions
Every paper summary includes actionable insights for investors, payers, and founders—no academic jargon, just investable intelligence
Wasu Mekniran, Tobias Kowatsch
Biomedical Engineering Conference - Portugal
💡 Investor takeaway:Use EDEN's thresholds instead of biotech heuristics to avoid overpaying for DHT optionality.
What This Unlocks
Investors:
Demonstrates scalable AI approach to market analysis and stakeholder mapping for prevention ventures
Payers:
Provides framework for identifying aligned partners in prevention ecosystem
Founders:
Offers methodology to map competitive landscape and identify strategic partners
Wasu Mekniran
💡 Investor takeaway:Use EDEN's thresholds instead of biotech heuristics to avoid overpaying for DHT optionality.
What This Unlocks
Investors:
Reveals why DHT investments require different evaluation criteria than traditional biotech
Payers:
Explains structural challenges in DHT reimbursement compared to pharmaceutical products
Founders:
Identifies four strategic positioning options for DHT competitive advantage
Wasu Mekniran, Lukasz Paciorkowski, Iwona Cymerman, Rafal Pawlowski
4th Swiss-Polish Economic and Technology Forum
💡 Investor takeaway:AI-first development reduces costs by 70%—prioritize companies with AI infrastructure.
What This Unlocks
Investors:
Quantifies cost savings and efficiency gains from AI adoption in drug development
Payers:
Shows potential for lower drug costs through AI-enabled development efficiency
Founders:
Demonstrates competitive advantage of AI-first development approach
Wasu Mekniran, Mia Jovanova, Tobias Kowatsch
Swiss Society of Endocrinology and Diabetes 2024
💡 Investor takeaway:Three contract models identified—target data-driven lifestyle change for fastest ROI.
What This Unlocks
Investors:
Maps value flows and revenue opportunities in diabetes prevention ecosystem
Payers:
Identifies three contract models for diabetes prevention reimbursement
Founders:
Reveals critical partnerships needed to align incentives for market entry
Wasu Mekniran, Jan-Niklas Kramer, Tobias Kowatsch
Biomedical Engineering Conference - Italy
💡 Investor takeaway:NCDs and stigmatized conditions have highest payer appeal—prioritize these segments.
What This Unlocks
Investors:
Reveals insurer decision criteria and three strategic pathways for DHT partnerships
Payers:
Outlines three business model options for insurers entering prevention market
Founders:
Identifies which DHT categories have highest payer appeal and why
Wasu Mekniran, Tobias Kowatsch
Biomedical Engineering Conference - Portugal
💡 Investor takeaway:B2B2C models outperform D2C—prioritize employer partnerships for scale.
What This Unlocks
Investors:
Identifies proven business model patterns from $1.73B in successful DHT funding
Payers:
Shows why B2B2C models outperform direct-to-consumer in prevention
Founders:
Provides blueprint for scalable business model design in longevity space
Wasu Mekniran, Odile-Florence Giger, Elgar Fleisch, Tobias Kowatsch, Mia Jovanova
SWU Biomedical Engineering Dept.
💡 Investor takeaway:Five strategies to bridge academic-community gap—target underserved niches for market entry.
What This Unlocks
Investors:
Maps global longevity ecosystem to identify underserved niches and partnership opportunities
Payers:
Reveals alignment gaps between research and community needs for prevention programs
Founders:
Identifies five strategies to bridge academic-community gap for market validation
Wasu Mekniran, Research Team
NUS Healthy Longevity Academy
💡 Investor takeaway:Consumer WTP data coming Q3 2025—early insights available on request.
What This Unlocks
Investors:
Will reveal consumer willingness to pay for longevity interventions
Payers:
Will show population health priorities for prevention program design
Founders:
Will identify consumer segments most receptive to longevity products
Research With Us?
We design value-based contracts and capital strategies that make prevention ventures investable
Contract Design & Capital Strategy
Turn prevention into investable infrastructure
In 2-4 weeks you get
- Value-based contract architecture with outcomes-based payment structure
- Financial model with discounted cash flow analysis and sensitivity scenarios
- Investor presentation linking risk-sharing contract to capital requirements
✓ Typical Result
Breakeven estimate ±10%, IRR range 12-18%, payer clause set (3 options)
Approach
- Contract design incorporates investor exit scenarios and capital structure requirements
- Financial modeling aligns operational cash flows with investment return expectations
- Presentation materials translate clinical outcomes into financial performance metrics
Ideal For: Digital prevention ventures designing payer contracts while preparing for capital raises
Wasu Mekniran
Researcher, ETH Zurich & HSG | Healthcare Financing & Digital Health
Researching at ETH Zurich & HSG, we are building the analytical infrastructure to make prevention investable—combining health economics and financial modeling to translate clinical outcomes into capital allocation decisions.
"The future of healthcare is prevention-first."
System-fit + Adoption Thresholds + ROI = the foundation for pricing longevity as an asset.
Ready to explore how prevention can become your next investable asset?